Tuesday, October 04, 2022


Updated on October 4, 2022 10:12:44 AM EDT

This morning’s moderately important economic report was Augusts Factory Orders data at 10:00 AM ET. The Commerce Department said new orders at U.S. factories were unchanged from July’s levels. Analysts were expecting to see a 0.3% rise in orders in durable and non-durable goods. The weaker reading is a sign the manufacturing sector was softer than thought, making the data good news for rates.

Septembers ADP Employment report will be posted early tomorrow morning. This report tracks changes in private-sector jobs, using ADPs payroll processing clients as a base. However, it is not accurate in predicting results of the monthly government report that follows a couple days later. Still, because we have seen reactions to the report, we should be watching it. Analysts are expecting it to show that 200,000 new payrolls were added. Good news for mortgage rates would be a noticeably smaller increase.

Also worth noting about tomorrow is the OPEC meeting. This is where the 13 oil producing member nations set output quotas, directly impacting the global oil supply. Raising production quotas means there is more oil available in the marketplace and should lower gas and other energy costs, easing inflationary pressures-particularly at the pump. On the other hand, if they lower output, we will likely see crude oil prices rise, translating into higher fuel costs and more inflation fears that make bonds less attractive to investors. The latter would lead to higher mortgage rates.

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